Why do I not take sides when it comes to competing coins and it doesn't mean I support both sides either?

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Adriaan Admin

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Jan 30, 2018
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#1
Some of my crypto buddies asked me this question, because he thought I supported both Bitcoin as Bitcoin Cash. The discussion is also about why I believe in Ethereum, while also believing it could just as well fail and/or been taken over by other projects like Cardano, Stellar, EOS or hell, even Ethereum Classic itself. My answer would be/was:

Nope you have misunderstood my reason for having BitcoinCash. I do know that LN is a "science project" (according to Roger) that still has issues to solve, but as we can see now, as long as we don't get an unsustainable hype train as in EOY 2017, Bitcoin functions perfectly fine for the time being. BitcoinCash also is far from perfect, but has significant business development and marketing backing, for example by Roger Ver, who is not to be underestimated! The reason that I hold BCH is not because I like it so much, but because its proposition is a fair argument for existence so it has its own merit with which I nor agree nor disagree, the future will tell. HOWEVER, by having more or less the same amount of BCH as BCT, for me it will not matter which one or both actually will survive as "real" bitcoin. my BCH is a hedge.

Similar I have EOS, and will have ADA and Stellar as hedges against Ethereum. I am also a interested and relatively positive towards Ethereum, but I can see more than enough controversy of its applications and technology, which leaves more than enough room for a reasonable failure probablility. So although I am generally hopeful for Ethereum and that they could just as well solve their scaling issues suddenly and/or against the assumed odds and remain a dominant factor in crypto industry (but perhaps within its own use case and subset of the market place); still I do feel that it is much more of an unstable, less secure, unproven, higher risk science project. But I really try to not to be biased towards any project and always consider alternative scenarios, like worst case scenarios and how to be prepared.

For example the reason that some people hate ETC and want it to die, is that in the back of their mind they do fear that it really could take over in some sort of black swan event that collapses their dear love ETH, while in fact a good argument can be made for the fact that it is Ethereum in the purest form (although I do also understand why back in the day Vitalik and consortium decided to fork off which they are now less likely to consider; for both are valid arguments for their existence).

Ultimately it will be the market that decides and we need to be humble enough to admit that we cannot possibly predict the future, especially when it comes to crypto. The real over arching and dominant world leading cryptocurrency that wins the day might not even exist yet for all we know! Again I repeat: Expect the unexpected!
 
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Adriaan Admin

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#2
The conversation continued, with him asking: if eth dies it won't be ETC taking over, It'd be Neo or cardano or eos etc.
ETC shares the same codebase, just like 1-2 changes. What could effect ETH negatively in which ETC could provide the best answer to?

To which I responded:
I don't have the answer to that question: it is an unknown unknown! And I am not saying that it WILL take over IF ETH would collapse; you are right that cardano, eos or stellar or any other could take over. It also depends on the reason of its collapse and where the developers incl Vitalik decide to go to. The reason I am mentioning ETC is that I just find it remarkable how many trading platforms have been adding it recently. It does not have to mean anything, it could just be that they all are speculating on higher trade volumes due to coinbase listing. It could also be something we don't know. But the markets and prices could make full paradigm shifts and some of those may be cause and effect reflexive feedback loops. Don't let your investments be based on biases and emotions either!
 
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Adriaan Admin

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Jan 30, 2018
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#9
Yes but it will take time and this bear market needs to end... lol
Note that of course it can, and of course it has a good chance to bounce back relatively strong (because it might be perceived as a severely undervalued buy) but rightfully anything else can occur that could prevent it from keeping a lead role in the next bull market, things like fundamental issues (scaling or stronger competition from other platform projects) or just lacking demand. Remember that most of the fuel for the 2017 hyperbolic ETH surge was because of the ICO hype. If that part of the eco system fundamentally changes, it might also fundamentally change the demand for ETH. Not saying that that will happen, just that it could happen just as well. Hopefully fundamentals stay good enough for ETH to get back on its feet when the new bull trend starts.
 
Likes: Emma
Jun 12, 2018
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#10
Note that of course it can, and of course it has a good chance to bounce back relatively strong (because it might be perceived as a severely undervalued buy) but rightfully anything else can occur that could prevent it from keeping a lead role in the next bull market, things like fundamental issues (scaling or stronger competition from other platform projects) or just lacking demand. Remember that most of the fuel for the 2017 hyperbolic ETH surge was because of the ICO hype. If that part of the eco system fundamentally changes, it might also fundamentally change the demand for ETH. Not saying that that will happen, just that it could happen just as well. Hopefully fundamentals stay good enough for ETH to get back on its feet when the new bull trend starts.
Ethereum Network Strain Means Centralization and/or Stunting Critical
DApp/Platform Growth