State of affairs with Bitcoin/crypto market prices while we are dipping!

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Adriaan Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 30, 2018
231
56
28
www.bitcoinforbeginners.io
#1
Now this post will be a lot of speculative talk about how I would interpretate several sources on market development, analyses by several TA-ers; not by any means my post has any predictive value, nor did I any chart analysis myself other than looking at the charts from a broader perspective and looking at interpretations by other analists. (big fat disclaimer haha)

That being said, we are experiencing yet another crypto sale and we all can wonder how much more of those before crypto becomes "unaffordable" again! For all the "Buy the dip" investors hopefully long enough, for every impatient investor that wants to see gains immediately, it is still a rough ride! We have now clearly seen that the 10k level resistance is a hard one to take out for the time being and then we seem to have another major one at the 11.8-12k zone; going above that would be a significant breakout that everyone's keeping an eye on and would most likely confirm a new bull rally. The so called Adam and Eve pattern that some identified in the last bottoms, would indicate that we are likely to have found the real bottom right there around the 6k zone and the prices from then on should eventually go higher, question is only when and how and how much as we all would like to know! Prices dipping now could actually be a good thing, because if they are able to reverse above the lowest lows that we have so far (6k zone), that would mean a higher low, and more higher lows usually form into a positive trend channel, which would further fortify the foundation of a bullish movement. If that happens, clearly it is important that we will take out the 10k so at least we'll be also making higher highs, while retracements should form more higher lows at their reversals: do you also see a positive trend channel forming in this scenario (for the time being this scenario is still wishful thinking)?

Like I said: it is important to make a higher low first! If prices drop below the lows of the bottom zone around 6k, it would confirm the downtrend/bearmarket is still very much alive (lower highs and lower lows). That would also indicate in that scenario we are still in Tone Vays' prediction of Bitcoin following the same pattern of 2014 and in that case the downtrend could continue for Bitcoin to 1,300 at worst and in an area under 6k at best, with intermediate alternative reversal levels of around 5k and 3k as potential reversals, which according to his probabilities would be an 80% chance. Now I know what you are thinking: sure that won't happen! Well that was what everybody thought when Bitcoin was still well over 15k and Tone expected the price to drop to around 6k and nobody would believe him and he found himself alone crying in the desert and we all know how that turned out haha! So although imo I believe Tone Vays is slightly biased to the negative because of his financial background in calculating risk models for Hedge Funds, which basically means his approach is almost by nature geared towards risk elimination and focus on what can go wrong! So I think we should definitely keep his scenario in mind, because I believe there is indeed a reasonable probability that his scenario could very well play out, although I do think that the probability of it is not as high as he estimates it, but still present. In my personal opinion a fall and looking at these scenarios I would however say that Bitcoin bottoming somewhere between 6 and 3k could very well be a more than 50% probability, so HODLers should really be mentally prepared and dip buyers should also make sure that they have enough cash ammunition to be able to move fast when the opportunities present themselves!

So those are 2 main perspectives that could play out and that would very much define how the market will develop the next couple of weeks/months. If we are able to establish a higher low now reasonably above 6k (for a beautiful channel pattern preferably between 7-8k, or maybe even the latest low of 8.2k) AND we are able to break 10k before we reverse back (probably near the 11.8-12k zone) + make a higher low once again on the following retracement, we will be collecting more and more bullish signals and gearing towards the next bull run. If on the other hand one of Tone's bearish scenarios plays out, we will be continuing in the bear market and it will become increasingly harder to regain confidence among market participants and might exponentially increase the time frame until we are back in bull territory......and also increase the time period for all the discount buyers to accumulate. First and foremost we need to make sure we always find the positive side of each market situation and turn that situation into our benefit.

All my personal opinion of course, only meant to share multiple viewpoints and speculate about several perspectives, so don't make any investment decisions based on this post obviously. Always do your own research and establish your own conclusions.
 
Last edited:
Likes: farooq

stellarowl12

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 30, 2018
80
65
18
#2
Now this post will be a lot of speculative talk about how I would interpretate several sources on market development, analyses by several TA-ers; not by any means my post has any predictive value, nor did I any chart analysis myself other than looking at the charts from a broader perspective and looking at interpretations by other analists. (big fat disclaimer haha)

That being said, we are experiencing yet another crypto sale and we all can wonder how much more of those before crypto becomes "unaffordable" again! For all the "Buy the dip" investors hopefully long enough, for every impatient investor that wants to see gains immediately, it is still a rough ride! We have now clearly seen that the 10k level resistance is a hard one to take out for the time being and then we another major one is at the 11.8-12k zone; going above that would be a significant breakout that everyone's watching and would most likely confirm a new bull rally. The so called Adam and Eve pattern that some identified in the last bottoms, would indicate that we are likely to have found the real bottom there and the prices from then on should eventually go up, question is only when and how and how much as we all would like to know! Prices dipping now could actually be a good thing, because if they are able to reverse before the lowest lows that we have so far, that would mean a higher low, and more higher lows usually form in to a positive trend channel, which would further fortify the foundation of a bullish movement. If that happens, clearly it is important that we will take out the 10k so at least we'll be also making higher highs, while retracements should form more higher lows at their reversals: do you also see a positive trend channel forming in this scenario?

Like I said: it is important to make a higher low first! If prices drop below the lows of the bottom zone around 6k, it would confirm the downtrend is still very much alive (lower highs and lower lows). That would also indicate in that scenario we are still in Tone Vays' prediction of Bitcoin following the same pattern of 2014 and in that case the downtrend could continue for Bitcoin to 1,300 at worst and in an area under 6k at best, with intermediate alternative levels of around 5k and 3k as potential reversals, with according to his probabilities would be an 80% chance. Now I know what you are thinking: sure that won't happen! Well that was what everybody thought when Bitcoin was still well over 15k and Tone expected the price to drop to under 6k and nobody would believe him and he found himself alone crying in the desert. So although imo I believe Tone Vays is slightly biased to the negative because of his financial background in calculating risk models for Hedge Funds, which basically means his approach is almost by nature geared towards risk elimination and focus on what can go wrong! So I think we should definitely keep his scenario in mind, because I believe there is indeed a reasonable probability that his scenario could very well play out, although I do think that the probability of it is not as high as he estimates it, but still present.

So those are 2 main perspectives that could play out and that would very much define how the market will develop the next couple of weeks/months. If we are able to establish a higher low now reasonably above 6k AND we are able to break 10k before we reverse back (probably near the 11.8-12k zone) and make a higher low once again, we will be collecting more and more bullish signals and gearing towards the next bull run. If one of Tone's bearish scenarios plays out, we will be continuing in the bear market and it will become increasingly harder to regain confidence among market participants and might exponentially increase the time frame until we are back in bull territory......and also increase the time period for all the discount buyers to accumulate. First and foremost we need to make sure we always find the positive side of each market situation and benefit from that understanding.

All my personal opinion of course, only meant to share multiple viewpoints and speculate about several perspectives, so don't make any investment decisions based on this. Always do your own research and establish your own conclusions.
Great write-up, maybe you should publish this elsewhere as well ;)
 
Likes: Adriaan Admin

farooq

New member
May 11, 2018
6
5
3
#4
Thanks, Well explained Adriaan!! The price tag doesn't matter for those who are in for long term positions because they know at the end of the day it's gonna go up anyway.
 
Likes: Adriaan Admin

Adriaan Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 30, 2018
231
56
28
www.bitcoinforbeginners.io
#5
Update as the market moves along: so far we have been seeing the much desired higher lows that could be the start of identifying an up trend. However we also see lower highs forming, and the chart pattern that lower highs and higher lows forms is typically a triangle. And a triangle usually is an indication for a heavy price move, but this can be in either direction! It will largely depend if we get a breakout above the pattern or a breakdown below the pattern. So although an uptrend can still develop from the current point in time, we have to breakout from the triangle and form a higher high at the very least (followed by another higher low); breaking down and falling to a new lower low, would further confirm that we will remain in the bear market for the time being.

From what I heard, around $5,000 is the next significant support IF indeed we breakdown from the triangle and through the support around 6k. In that case it is still dip buyers and cost averagers paradise! The new breed of HODLers that have entered in the past period between 10-20k are going to develop stronger brain muscles for HODLing if they manage to sit tight!
 
Likes: farooq
Jun 12, 2018
70
8
8
#6
If that happens, clearly it is important that we will take out the 10k so at least we'll be also making higher highs, while retracements should form more higher lows at their reversals: do you also see a positive trend channel forming in this scenario (for the time being this scenario is still wishful thinking)?