Bitcoin hashrate growth finally stabilizing!

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Adriaan Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 30, 2018
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www.bitcoinforbeginners.io
#1
according to the game theory of bitcoin, the mining difficulty of bitcoin (reflected by the hashrate) should be declining in a bear market with a lower bitcoin price (and therefore lower profitability of mining bitcoin, which means some miners will stop mining and that will cause the hashrate to be lower). Despite this 2018 bear market however, in total contradiction, the hashrate was ever increasing (which we also noted in this news article, recently published on our website). However now 10 days later after the article was published, the update hashrate graphic finally shows that hashrate growth seems to be stabilizing and is currently in a sideways channel. What do ya'll think? Are miners finally dropping off and should we expect the hashrate to reverse and decline, catching up with the bear market (while lagging the price action 10 months)? Here is the link to the recent hashrate graphic on blockchain.com: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
 

stellarowl12

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 30, 2018
80
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18
#2
according to the game theory of bitcoin, the mining difficulty of bitcoin (reflected by the hashrate) should be declining in a bear market with a lower bitcoin price (and therefore lower profitability of mining bitcoin, which means some miners will stop mining and that will cause the hashrate to be lower). Despite this 2018 bear market however, in total contradiction, the hashrate was ever increasing (which we also noted in this news article, recently published on our website). However now 10 days later after the article was published, the update hashrate graphic finally shows that hashrate growth seems to be stabilizing and is currently in a sideways channel. What do ya'll think? Are miners finally dropping off and should we expect the hashrate to reverse and decline, catching up with the bear market (while lagging the price action 10 months)? Here is the link to the recent hashrate graphic on blockchain.com: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
Interesting theory... is the hashrate declining a bad thing then? Should we be worried?
 
Likes: Adriaan Admin

Adriaan Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 30, 2018
231
56
28
www.bitcoinforbeginners.io
#3
hashrate declining means less miners connected to the network and lower cost of mining. It is part of the game theoretical process of balancing between cost of mining and price of bitcoin. In theory the network becomes less secure when the hashrate goes down (it becomes less expensive for 51% attack). Of course it is still a long way from being any real threat, but if the spiral continues down in a negative feedback loop (Bitcoin price goes down > bitcoin mining becomes less profitable > miners leave the network > hashrate goes down > trust in network goes down > price of bitcoin goes down > etc.) in theory the mining difficulty could become so low that attacking the network could become real reality, because the network just becomes too insecure. At some point the price of bitcoin would need to reverse and go in an uptrend again, before the spiral becomes problematic or irreversible. Because then mining becomes more profitable again, new miners enter the market and the hashrate would go up.

The reason that I mentioned the hashrate to finally stabilize, was that it seemed so unusual that hashrate was still increasing despite the fact that bitcoin price has been down for so long already, which would suggest that it goes against the game theory. Another theory could be that initially the price during bull market went up so fast that mining cost could not keep up, which gave miners such a fat margin that despite the huge price drop in the bear market, mining was still profitable enough and had still room for the hashrate to grow. Perhaps now we have come to a point that the hashrate has gone up enough to make mining on or below break-even finally, which means that only since recently it has become less interesting for miners to add new equipment to the network. Which would be another theoretical explanation.

Either way, as long as the hashrate doesn't start dropping too far and nor does the bitcoin price, in such a way that it doesn't become problematic, we should all be fine!